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Prediction for CME (2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-09T11:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16869/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a filament eruption starting 2021-05-09T10:06Z visible in the disk center in SDO AIA 193/304 (and in the W STA EUVI 195). Clear arrival signature at L1 with IPS at 2021-05-12T05:48Z marked by sudden increase in B total to above 23 nT, a sudden jump in solar wind speed from 310 km/s to 450-490 km/s and increases in solar wind density and temperature; Bz reached negative values of around -19 nT for a brief time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T14:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 500.0 km/s 
Upgraded EAMv3 output:
u_r =      317.100
Acceleration:       1.82954
Duration in seconds:        249306.57
Duration in days:        2.8854927
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   1.83 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  773.2 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2021 Time: 14:19 UT

Lead Time: 30.55 hour(s)
Difference: -8.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-05-10T23:15Z

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